The only possible solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict – Part I of III

Why violence is not the answer?

Because despite 60 years of violence the problem obviously still exists. Everytime Israel attacks or retaliates violently, the actions in the mid to long run result in emblodening the violent arm of the Pan-Palestine resistance even if the military objective is successful. Two examples , also referred to in an interesting  NY Times Article , from past history to back the assertion:

1. In 1982, Israel drove out Yasser Arafat and his PLO forces from South Lebanon. The military objective was achieved, its own Northern border was secured, Yasser Arafat came to the negotiating table but in the mean time Iran set up an even more potent and radical force on Israel’s Nothern border in the form of Hezbollah.

2. In 2006, Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and Israel retaliated with a war on Lebanon resulting in deaths of at least a thousand Lebanese (including Hezbollah fighters) but resulting in strengthening Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas to a point where Hezbollah has replaced a moderate US leaning party as the most powerful party in Lebanon.

The current Gaza War will, in all likelihood, result in re-emergence of  Hamas even if they suffer heavy blows. Or, yet another militant resistance group like Hezbollah taking over the reins for the next round of violence. Groundhog day indeed.

Why is a violent, militant approach fundamentally doomed from the start?

For one, the root of the problem is a two-state solution. Military offensive by one or the other doesn’t result in a two-state solution. As long as the Palestinians do not have their own country the militants amongst them find justification for attacks on Israel and as long as that happens Israel will not negotiate.

Two, Israel has too many neighbors. Even if Israel can pummel one country into submission, the carnage it leaves behind fuels enough groups in other Middle-Eastern countries to attack Israel at a later date. What are the odds that while the current War is going on Hezbollah is planning how to attack Israeli interests in Israel or any other place in the world? Close to 1.

Three, there is no such thing as a sustained, enduring military imposed solution unless we go in to a WWIII like situation with the goal of complete annhiliation of countries and regimes even then post-war efforts have to be managed with wisdom (like WWII) otherwise it only results in delaying the next war (like WWI).  I think we can find smarter solutions than WWIII.

Four, any violent action or reaction from Hamas, Hezbollah or Israel results in deaths of more civilians than military personnels and hence it simply adds fuel to the fire.

So it surmises to say that the current Israeli military reaction will as surely buy it only temporary peace as surely the next violent attack will take place against it as result of these actions.

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One Response

  1. It would seem that you are right, violence has not worked.
    But neither has negotations.
    What can be done?
    It seems to me that either you have to kill them all, or give then what they want, no matter how rediculas it is?

    Andrew

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